The speakers at the 13th SIAM Looking Ahead Conclave said that factors like low-interest rate, benign inflation, moderation in oil prices are likely to be supportive for consumer demand. However, the economy may face major headwind due to certain domestic and global developments.
N Raja, Chairman, SIAM Economic Research Group & Deputy Managing Director, Toyota Kirloskar Motor, Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India, Sameer Narang, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, C V Raman, Executive Director, Maruti Suzuki India, Kapil Gupta, Economist, Edelweiss Securities, B Srinivas, Senior Vice President, Strategy & Product Planning, VE Commercial Vehicles, V Ravi, Executive Director & Chief Financial Officer, Mahindra Finance, A K Taneja, Managing Director & CEO, Shriram Pistons & Rings, D K Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL, Yuvika Oberoi, Senior Vice President, Yes Bank and Kumar Rakesh, Assistant Vice President, BNP Paribas spoke at the event.
On the domestic front, though food inflation is likely to remain low, the lower food prices are expected to adversely impact the farm and rural income. Even farm loan waiver may have only limited impact on overall rural demand when realisation of financial income is likely to be low due to low prices of farm output.
On the global front, the economic growth of the developed economies like USA, Europe, etc. seems to remain weak. The concern over growth may keep global interest rate low which may have positive repercussion on domestic interest rate. But moderation in global economic growth is a major downside risk for exports from India, the conclave observed.